- The dollar rallied yesterday, boosted by the well-above-expectation U.S. ADP report which showed the largest world’s economy added 234,000 jobs in January.
- Markets turned their attentions to Friday’s NFP in the overall choppy move after interest rate decision and policy statement by FOMC which were bang in line with anticipations.
- We should keep an eye on some macro data today, including January manufacturing PMI both from EU and U.K, and U.S. ISM manufacturing index as well.
The dollar only rebounded against a basket of six majors several hours after the well-above-expectation U.S. ADP release which showed the largest world’s economy added 234,000 jobs in January. The muted dollar reaction to the noted data indicated that market participants put the focus squarely on Fed policy decision later. The Fed did not change its policy interest rate at the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Janet Yellen, however, sent a slightly hawkish signal in the policy statement after the conclusion of the meeting in the early hours of Thursday BJT. Given the decision and statement were bang in line with expectations, the dollar traded in a wide range without a clear trend in the short term. Look for more potential impacts of the noted result today. We should also keep an eye on some macro data, including January manufacturing PMI both from EU and U.K, and U.S. ISM manufacturing index as well.
The dollar index (DXY) failed to decisively break above its H1-period trend resistance albeit it rallied and pared intra-losses yesterday. It is suggested to focus on looking at the potential changes in the trend on the 4 hour chart. Be aware of directions in the short term moving averages and its relative developments to its long term moving averages going forward.
（DXY H4 chart）
As to non-U.S. currencies, the euro turned lower to H4-period trend support after the completion of a 3 wave sequence on the 1 hour chart. Look at the potential extension of consolidation at its highs in the price action. The British pound closed higher slightly after a choppy move. Look at its potential extension of the upside momentum on the 4 hour chart, with resistance at highs of last Thursday. The Aussie dollar underperformed and was moving down towards its H4-period trend support.
（AUDUSD H4 chart）
Let’s take a look at precious metals now. The gold staged a V-shape rally to print a new intra-day high immediately after the yellow metal briefly cleared the weekly lows after FOMC decision release. Its short term moving averages tended to flatten after converging with its long term moving averages. Markets will focus on U.S. NFP report after FOMC out of the way.
（Gold H4 chart）
By JasonZou —— Chief Analyst of AvaTrade China
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and for the purpose of reference only, and shall not be relied upon by investors in making any trading decisions.