Rapport de Marché Hebdomadaire – 15.10.2018
CurrenciesEUR/USD – the weak GDP data out of the US was enough to breach through the resistance around the 1.1116 level and we came close to the next resistance level near the 1.12 level. It reached the highest level since the Brexit vote and is more or less holding on to these levels, even though FED member Dudley said that the FED might increase the interest faster than the market expects. Over the weekend the ECB reported that all major banks would be able to withstand a new financial crisis. We have German and US data today.
USD/JPY – kept on extending its losses during the day as also the data out of the US was weak, leading to a further strengthening of the JPY and a weakening of the USD. All eyes will now turn to what measures the Japanese government will announce this week.
GBP/USD – remains trading in the same range as this week will be important for the GBP with a lot of important data and also the interest rate decision on Thursday. It is widely expected that the BOE will ease monetary policy, so we could expect some downwards pressure as we near Thursday.
AUS/USD – has been moving up due to a weakening USD, but will be waiting for the interest rate decision overnight, where a cut is expected, and the RBA statement.
USD/CAD – has dropped sharply due to a combination of bad US GDP data (even though Canadian GDP data was also weaker than expected) and a rising oil price.
IndicesDollar Index – took a dive down on Friday, first due to the disappointing measures taken by the BOJ, and later during the day because of the weak GDP data. This has reduced the chances of an interest hike even further after the FOMC statement.
S&P 500 – appears to be breaking through the resistance as earnings are overall coming in better than expected and also oil prices moved up during the session.
CommoditiesGold – has moved higher as the USD dropped after the weak GDP data out of the US.
Oil – has moved up a little bit after dropping for 6 consecutive days. This is most likely due to a combination of a weakening USD and profit taking. Fundamentally nothing has changed to cause oil to move up, and we also saw yet another (albeit small) increase in the number of active rigs.