Rapport de Marché Hebdomadaire – 15.10.2018
CurrenciesEUR/USD – has reached the highest level since the Brexit referendum to trade above the 1.12 level, which is also the resistance level. There are some concerns on the strength of the banking sector in the Eurozone which we will need to keep an eye on. Today we have different sets of data as we are approaching Friday’s NFP.
USD/JPY – as the Japanese government was unable to impress with its stimulus package, the JPY strengthens further and is trading around the 100 level again. As if always the case, the BOJ could intervene at these levels, as a strong JPY is definitely hurting exports. However, with the latest action the willingness of the BOJ is being questioned as well.
GBP/USD – construction PMI came in better than expected, and while it didn’t cause much of a move initially, we saw the GBP strengthen throughout the day as also the USD kept weakening. We broke through the 1.33 level which has been the upper limit in the last days. Today we have the services PMI, but tomorrow will be the big day.
USD/CAD – wasn’t able to break through the resistance, and when crude oil started moving up, we saw a drop, also due to a further weakening of the USD. As oil returned to drop again, we have seen another move up and we are trading again where we were yesterday around the resistance at the 1.312 level.
AUS/USD – while initially dropping as the RBA cut the interest rates, this didn’t last long, as the USD remains very weak.
Bitcoin – after failing to break through the resistance at the 665 level, we have been steadily moving down, but we saw a large drop yesterday on the backdrop of a reported hack of one of the exchanges which resulted in the theft of $65 million.
IndicesDAX 30 – has dropped as the stress test did not deliver the wanted results and concerns remain on the banking sector.
Dollar Index – continued to drop sharply as the USD keeps on weakening. It reached the lowest level since the Brexit vote. We have some important data today that could move the USD, but obviously the main event will be the NFP on Friday.
S&P 500 – is finally showing some more correlation with oil and is moving down and is trading at the lowest level in 3 weeks.
CommoditiesGold – continues to move higher as the USD is showing ongoing weakness, as well as renewed concern on the banking sector in the Eurozone. We are close to reaching the highest level in well over 2 years, which will be the case if we manage to break above the 1375 level.
Oil – remains trading well below the 40 level even though the crude stock showed a small drawdown. The drop come in spite of a weakening USD which usually causes oil to move up. As usual we will be looking again at the inventories today for which there is an expectation of a decrease of 1.363 million barrels, and production.
StocksTesla – will be releasing its earnings today.