Weekly Market Report – 15.10.2018
CurrenciesEUR/USD – we saw a nice move up yesterday. It is interesting to see the trading on the EUR at the moment, as usually when there is a flow to safe havens, the EUR also benefits, as we see an exit out of the USD. However, the main reason for market insecurity at the moment is a possible Brexit, and that would have a direct negative impact on the EUR as well, so it is being pulled in 2 directions.
USD/JPY – continues to trade lower and is breaking again below the downwards trend line. The renewed strengthening of the JPY is not exactly what the BOJ wants, as this will hurt exports. However, with the Brexit vote only a little over a week away, the BOJ has some tough decisions to make.
GBP/USD – remains very volatile, as a poll came out which (wrongly) put the stay camp in the lead, which caused the GBP to strengthen significantly. When after a few minutes a correction was issued which showed that it was the leave camp in the lead, the GBP immediately dropped again. The polls of the last week or so, are indeed showing the leave camp in the lead, which makes it more likely that this is indeed the case. In addition, The Sun is also backing a Brexit, which is not all that surprising, but adds more fuel to the leave camp. The big question however is, if those who are for a Brexit will also actually go out and vote.
IndicesDAX 30 – remains very weak as we can clearly see the impact of a possible Brexit. We have dropped more than 7% in a week, and most analyst think that there is much more to go in case a Brexit materializes.
CommoditiesGold – reached the highest level in a month as the market is fearful of a Brexit. We are able to see an upwards channel on the 1 hour chart, and reached the bottom of this channel before moving up again.
Oil – continues to trade lower, helped by the fears a possible Brexit will have on the world economy, which in turn will affect the demand of oil. We will be looking at the crude stock later today and then tomorrow the inventories.
StocksLinkedIn & Microsoft – the breaking news story of yesterday was without a doubt the news that Microsoft is buying LinkedIn for $26.2 billion. As a result LinkedIn jumped over 46%!