Weekly Market Report – 15.10.2018
CurrenciesEUR/USD – was unable to remain above the 1.10 level and has moved down. There is a lot of US data coming out today, but the most important event for the EUR will most likely be tomorrow with the ECB press conference.
USD/JPY – saw another attempt at the 104 level which once again failed. At the moment it is driven purely by the USD as there is no important Japanese data.
GBP/USD – the slightly better than expected inflation data out of the UK was not able to lift the GBP, but when the UK Attorney General said that it is likely that Brexit will need to be ratified by parliament, we saw an immediate lift, although shortly thereafter he stated that this was not necessarily the case. Nonetheless, also a bit weaker US data helped the GBP move higher. We have more data out of the UK today and tomorrow.
USD/CAD – has seen a sharp decline over the last days as oil prices have risen a bit, but mainly due to the fact that the USD is also losing some of its strength. We will be looking at the Canadian interest rate decision and the monetary policy report of the BOC.
IndicesDAX 30 – reached the downwards trend line one more, only to be stopped again by this resistance. However, we are expected to open higher, so today we could possibly see a break of this downwards trend line.
S&P 500 – with earnings coming in relatively good so far, we can see the S&P advance, as also the expectation is that any rate increase will be done very gradual by the FED, so even if the interest rate will go up, it will remain low for quite some time. In addition, the fact that Chinese GDP data came in as expected, has the markets a little less worried about the Chinese economy.
CommoditiesGold – was able to trade in the 1260 level again as the USD continued to weaken, but it is moving down this morning, as the Chinese data was not bad, although industrial production was less than expected, but has taken away the need for safe havens.
Oil – moved up at the end of the day after the API crude stock data showed a decrease of 3.8 million barrels. As always we will look at the EIA inventories and the production this afternoon. As a reminder, we have seen over the last few weeks a large difference between the API and EIA data of 2 million barrels or more. Another open question is when we will see production increase, as the number of active rigs has been increasing for 15 out of the last 16 weeks.
StocksIntel – while beating the forecast for the 3rd quarter, but since the projected revenue for the current quarter came in slightly lower than was expected we can see that it is trading down over 5% in afterhours trading.
Google – moved up, after its new upcoming smartphone received very positive reviews.